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NFL Week 10 Anytime Touchdown Picks — MoneyFootball Board
The MoneyFootball Week 10 board, published Thursday, November 12, 2026: 4 anytime touchdown targets, all BUY and all HIGH confidence, with the Kalshi price and published fair value shown for each pick as published. Fair values are published post-shrinkage (FV_pub = ask + 0.70 × (model FV − ask)). This was the first board run under the publish gate adopted after the Week 9 post-mortem: only the top published-fair-value band makes the board, so there are no PASS rows. The Thursday night Washington at New York game carried no board name — its best published fair values (Malik Nabers .607, Isaiah Likely .598) never reached the band. One flag carried at publish: Jared Goff (chest) was limited in Wednesday practice and listed questionable, expected to start the Sunday 9:30 AM ET Munich game.
Week 10 board: 4 targets, all BUY, all HIGH confidence — the first board under the post-Week-9 publish gate (top published-fair-value band only, no PASS rows). Settlement follows the games of Sunday, November 15, 2026.
Season record at publish: 43-43 (50.0%) after Week 9 — 86 settled verdicts on the season.
All-time record at publish: 356-206 (562 settled, 63.3%).
Sniper HIGH (W1-W9): 24/55 = 43.6% (HIGH-confidence verdicts only, including PASS verdicts).
| Player | Matchup | Verdict | Tier | Kalshi Price | Published Fair Value | Net Edge | Team ITT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | DET vs NE | BUY | HIGH | 71¢ | .855 | +14.5¢ | 26.75 |
| Kenneth Walker III | KC vs ATL | BUY | HIGH | 70¢ | .838 | +13.8¢ | 24.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey | SF vs DAL | BUY | HIGH | 72¢ | .813 | +9.3¢ | 29.75 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL vs KC | BUY | HIGH | 65¢ | .752 | +10.2¢ | 21 |
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